Bitcoin News and Finance Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Model Still Intact — ‘Starting to look like 2013’ S2F Creator Says Skip to main content

Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Model Still Intact — ‘Starting to look like 2013’ S2F Creator Says

Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Model Still Intact — 'Starting to look like 2013' S2F Creator Says

The creator of the popular bitcoin price model called stock-to-flow (S2F or S2FX) has added a new dot to his notorious chart. Plan B said on Tuesday that “we knew bitcoin would not go up in a straight line” and added that the market action is “starting to look like 2013.”

S2FX ‘Intact’ Says Plan B

“Plan B,” is a pseudonym leveraged by the Twitter account @100trillionusd and since March 22, 2019, he’s been documenting his popular stock-to-flow (S2F) price model. Similar to the tools and technical analysis models Bitcoin.com News has written about in recent days like the Golden Ratio Multiplier and Logarithmic Growth Curves, Plan B’s model is extremely popular and he recently updated it to the stock-to-flow cross-asset (S2FX) model.

Basically, the model quantifies BTC’s scarcity in a similar fashion to scarce assets like gold. It then leverages the bitcoin in circulation and quantifies it by yearly issuance with reward halvings as well.

Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Model Still Intact — 'Starting to look like 2013' S2F Creator Says

At the time of publication, the Bitcoin network’s inflation rate per annum is approximately 1.77% and a circulating supply of 18,723,781 BTC. Despite bitcoin losing 53% from it’s all-time high of over $64k to a low of $30k in 30 days, Plan B still confirms the S2FX model is “intact.” Moreover, current charts look awfully familiar as Plan B expressed that things are looking like 2013 right now.

“New dot: May close $37,341.. -35% .. we knew bitcoin would not go up in a straight line and several -35% drops are possible (and indeed likely) in a bull market,” Plan B tweeted. “Starting to look like 2013. S2F(X) model intact,” the popular Twitter account told his 523,000 followers. Plan B further added:

2nd bounce off the lower band of S2F model. Will S2F break? Or will this turn out to be an excellent buy signal? I know multiple hedge funds that actually trade this BTC-S2F ‘cointegration’ (despite that we can’t formally use cointegration tests because S2F ratio isn’t random).

Plan B Asks Will S2F Break or Is This a Buy Signal?

Moreover, Plan B also started a poll on Twitter that asked his followers if they thought the S2F model would break or will it turn out to be an excellent buy signal. Out of over 15,000 votes so far, 54.7% think it’s a “buy signal,” while 17.4% think “S2F will break.” One individual responded and said BTC would go “back to $20k and bounce.” Others who believe its an excellent “buy signal,” said the question was a “no brainer.”

Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Model Still Intact — 'Starting to look like 2013' S2F Creator Says

Plan B was also asked “How do you define break? 2stdev or 1stdev band?” The S2F creator responded and noted: “Let’s say break out of the 1stdev band and stay below $100k this year. i.e. 1 outlier will not break it, but structurally below model breaks it. Formulas and stats are in the s2f paper, so you could define it better.”

Bitcoin prices tried to surpass $38k this past weekend but bulls have failed to push the value past that range. Plan B is not the only market observer that has said the current market cycle looks like “2013.” On May 23, Bitcoin.com News reported on a number of traders and crypto proponents who believe the current cycle is very similar to 2013’s double top bull run.

What do you think about Plan B’s updated S2F chart with the new dot? Do you think S2F break? Let us know what you think about this subject in the comments section below.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Custodial Lightning Network Service Attack Discovered by LN ‘Newbie’ — Hacker Strikes 6 LN Custodians

On September 18, a Redditor posted to the r/bitcoin forum and explained how he discovered a way to “attack [the] lightning Network’s custodial services.” The Reddit account dubbed “Reckless Satoshi” wanted to figure out if a “discrepancy between real routing fees and service’s transaction fee can be exploited for a profit.” The researcher disclosed that he wanted to see how large the damage could be and said “it is bad.” 6 Lightning Network Custodial Services Attacked, Researcher Discloses Findings to Offenders Prior to Public Disclosure A Redditor called Reckless Satoshi published a disclosure post on r/bitcoin this past Saturday and disclosed how he had found a vulnerability with routing fees and some of the Lightning Network’s custodial services. The research attack was done in good faith and after it was complete he disclosed the bugs to the offending services before publishing his findings. Reckless Satoshi used the Lightning Network (LN) attack on six different services incl...

Axie Infinity Down 40% Since Last Week’s Price High, Protocol Revenue Outshines Competitors

Last week, the game token leveraged within the Axie Infinity gaming universe skyrocketed to all-time highs, while other crypto markets remained extremely lackluster. During the last seven days, Axie Infinity’s platform token has dropped significantly in value shedding more than 12%. Meanwhile, the game platform’s smooth love potion token has slid over 8% over the last 24 hours. Axie Infinity Down More Than 40% Since All-Time High Not too long ago, the axie infinity (AXS) token was a topical conversation because it reached an all-time high on July 15. At the time, AXS managed to capture $28.93 per unit and since then it has shed 12.8% during the last seven days. The axie infinity (AXS) token is used within the blockchain-based game that involves battles between token-based creatures called “Axies.” AXS is used for the game’s governance system as well as other actions within the game. At the time of writing axie infinity (AXS) is exchanging hands for $16.70 per coin. AXS/USD on Ju...

Play-to-Earn Game From Polker (PKR) Exchange Listing – Endorsed by Akon

The Play-to-Earn NFT based Polker.Game ‘s native token $PKR has been officially listed on the popular centralized exchange BitMart. Polker.game has been in the spotlight recently as Akon, the American R&B superstar and record producer gave his official endorsement of polker stating that the “game is revolutionary” and that Polker is “hands down.. the best play to earn, NFT game in the space.”. With the BitMart listing and celebrity endorsement from Akon, Polker is perfectly positioned to become a major player in the Play-to-Earn league. Watch Akon’s Video Here What is Play-to-Earn? Although not a new concept, play-to-earn has become a trending term due to the popularity of the NFT game AXIE infinity. In the past, previous play-to-earn games have also achieved success – however, thanks to the huge amount of development in the blockchain space in recent years the gaming experience is now massively improved. Play-to-Earn games are essentially free to play and open to anyone and...

China to Crack Down on Copyright Infringement Through NFTs

Authorities in China are going after creators of digital collectibles based on other people’s works of art, the use of which was not authorized. The government offensive is part of a campaign to combat online copyright infringement and piracy with the participation of several departments. Regulators in China Move to Strengthen Copyright Supervision of Online Platforms The National Copyright Administration of China (NCAC) has recently launched a campaign against copyright infringement and piracy on the internet, together with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, and the State Internet Information Office of the People’s Republic. A major objective of the initiative is to improve copyright supervision of online businesses by investigating cases involving the sale and distribution of infringing products on short video, live broadcast and e-commerce platforms, and promptly dealing with infringing content, the agency announced in a press r...
Blogarama - Blog Directory