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ETF Analysts: Spot Bitcoin ETF Approval Odds at 65% Amid Pressure From Blackrock Skip to main content

ETF Analysts: Spot Bitcoin ETF Approval Odds at 65% Amid Pressure From Blackrock

ETF Analysts: Spot Bitcoin ETF Approval Odds at 65% Amid Pressure From Blackrock

According to James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas, two analysts specializing in exchange-traded funds (ETFs) at Bloomberg, the likelihood of a spot bitcoin ETF debut in the U.S. has surged to 65%. These analysts attribute this increase to “pressure from Blackrock and possibly Democrats,” a force that could compel the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to act.

U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETF Odds Rise to 65%, Analysts Cite Blackrock Influence

Following a wave of spot bitcoin ETF filings and revisions, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) now finds itself with several applications awaiting review. In the midst of June, Blackrock, the world’s largest asset manager by assets under management (AUM), lodged its spot bitcoin ETF application, with several other contenders quickly falling in line. Fast forward to August 2, 2023, and Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas publicly offered their insights regarding the SEC’s potential approval of a spot bitcoin ETF.

“Based on recent events and new information Eric Balchunas and I are officially increasing our spot bitcoin ETF approval odds to 65%. That’s from 50% a couple of weeks ago and 1% a few months ago,” Seyffart posted on the social media platform X. Seyffart’s post also shares a statement from both analysts which states:

“The odds of a spot bitcoin ETF launching this year are up to 65%, in our eyes, after a flurry of developments: Gary Gensler downplaying his role at the SEC, the commission’s tacit approval of Coinbase’s Bitcoin exchange, Grayscale’s attempt to minimize other filings and the SEC’s loss in front of the same judges in the Grayscale case. Finally, pressure from Blackrock and possibly Democrats could make denying the ETFs politically untenable for Gensler.”

Seyffart emphasizes that his team is speculating on the timing of the Grayscale case dates, but asserts that they envision the easiest path as simultaneous approval for all eight filers plus Grayscale, following the courts’ overturning of the SEC’s denial. “The lynchpin” for this, Seyffart argues, is a triumph by Grayscale over the SEC in federal court. It could pave the way for a surge of SEC approvals sometime in the fourth quarter. However, that “all depends on how much Gensler wants to fight here,” Seyffart explains.

What do you think about the two ETF analysts increasing the odds of a spot bitcoin ETF getting approval from the SEC? Share your thoughts and opinions about this subject in the comments section below.

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